Prospect board, #645 overall
Noel Fransén
Defence, 20.8 years old, Chicago Wolves (AHL), 6′0″ 190 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
18%
Scouting report
Noel Fransén is a 20-year-old defenceman with Chicago Wolves in the AHL, a Carolina Hurricanes third-round pick, 69 overall in 2024. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.17 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 1.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.40 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
At 20.8 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 18% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair4%
- Third-pair18%
- Tweener29%
- AHLer (most likely)58%
How he got there
1His line
0.17 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+44%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#69
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Chicago Wolves | AHL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 |
| Last season | Färjestad BK | SHL | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.15 |
| Last season | BIK Karlskoga | ALLSVENSKAN | 38 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.37 |