Chase Pietila

Defence, 22.5 years old, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (AHL), 6′2″ 202 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

19%

AHLer

Scouting report

Chase Pietila is a 22-year-old defenceman with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL, a Pittsburgh Penguins fourth-round pick, 111 overall in 2024. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 5 games, 0.40 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.30 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 202 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 19% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
Top-pair1%
Second-pair2%
Third-pair19%
Tweener31%
AHLer (most likely)90%

How he got there

1His line
0.40 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−24%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#111
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins	AHL	5	0	2	2	0.40
Last season	Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins	AHL	66	2	14	16	0.24