Prospect board, #421 overall
Nathan Aspinall
Left wing, 20.5 years old, Hartford Wolf Pack (AHL), 6′7″ 207 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
20%
Scouting report
Nathan Aspinall is a 20-year-old left wing with Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL, a New York Rangers fifth-round pick, 159 overall in 2024. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 8 games, 0.38 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
That is down from 1.45 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His team scores 2.1 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.69 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. At 20.5 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-7 and 207 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 20% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer14%
- Fourth-liner20%
- Tweener31%
- AHLer (most likely)74%
How he got there
1His line
0.38 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 8 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+32%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#159
2024, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Hartford Wolf Pack | AHL | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 |
| Last season | Flint Firebirds | OHL | 65 | 33 | 61 | 94 | 1.45 |