Prospect board, #206 overall
Malcolm Spence
Left wing, 20.0 years old, Univ. of Michigan (NCAA), 6′1″ 190 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
40%
Scouting report
Malcolm Spence is a 19-year-old left wing with Univ. of Michigan in the NCAA, a New York Rangers second-round pick, 43 overall in 2025. He has 4 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, 1.17 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 40% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 5% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 37 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer16%
- Fourth-liner40%
- Tweener (most likely)55%
- AHLer86%
How he got there
1His line
1.17 P/GP
4 G, 3 A in 6 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
18 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#43
2025, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
37 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Univ. of Michigan | NCAA | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.17 |
| Last season | Univ. of Michigan | NCAA | 40 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 0.63 |