Prospect board, #32 overall
Justin Carbonneau
Right wing, 19.8 years old, Springfield Thunderbirds (AHL), 6′1″ 203 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
83%
Scouting report
Justin Carbonneau is a 19-year-old right wing with Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL, a St Louis Blues first-round pick, 19 overall in 2025. He has 3 goals and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
At 19.8 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 203 pounds. His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 83% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 32% of a first-line career and 13% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 44 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite13%
- First-liner32%
- Middle-sixer34%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)83%
- Tweener91%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
3 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+32%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#19
2025, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Springfield Thunderbirds | AHL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 |
| Last season | Blainville-Boisbriand Armada | QMJHL | 60 | 51 | 29 | 80 | 1.33 |