Prospect board, #36 overall
Vaclav Nestrasil
Right wing, 19.4 years old, Univ. of Massachusetts (NCAA), 6′5″ 187 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
62%
Scouting report
Vaclav Nestrasil is a 19-year-old right wing with Univ. of Massachusetts in the NCAA, a Chicago Blackhawks first-round pick, 25 overall in 2025. He has 3 goals and 0 assists in 6 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 19.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 187 pounds. His most likely outcome is a middle-sixer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 62% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 24% of a first-line career and 15% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 55 points a season at his best. Moving up a tier would take scoring well above his league's top-line rate.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite15%
- First-liner24%
- Middle-sixer (most likely)54%
- Fourth-liner62%
- Tweener84%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
3 G, 0 A in 6 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+5%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#25
2025, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
55 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Univ. of Massachusetts | NCAA | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.50 |
| Last season | UMass | NCAA | 34 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 0.91 |