Artem Gonchar

Scouting report

Artem Gonchar is a 19-year-old defenceman with Sudbury Wolves in the OHL, a New York Rangers third-round pick, 89 overall in 2025. He has 0 goals and 5 assists in 8 games, 0.62 a game, which works out to about 7 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.3 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.40 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. At 19.9 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 156 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 27 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.