Prospect board, #1450 overall
Parker Holmes
Left wing, 19.5 years old, Sarnia Sting (OHL), 6′3″ 222 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
6%
Scouting report
Parker Holmes is a 19-year-old left wing with Sarnia Sting in the OHL, a Chicago Blackhawks fourth-round pick, 107 overall in 2025. He has 2 goals and 6 assists in 11 games, 0.73 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.35 a game last season. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 222 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 6% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer1%
- Fourth-liner6%
- Tweener10%
- AHLer22%
How he got there
1His line
0.73 P/GP
2 G, 6 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−11%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#107
2025, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
30 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Sarnia Sting | OHL | 11 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.73 |
| Last season | Brantford Bulldogs | OHL | 49 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0.35 |