Prospect board, #15 overall
Maddox Dagenais
Centre, 18.5 years old, Québec Remparts (QMJHL), 6′4″ 194 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
85%
Scouting report
Maddox Dagenais is an 18-year-old centre with Québec Remparts in the QMJHL, a St Louis Blues first-round pick, 16 overall in 2026. He has 5 goals and 3 assists in 8 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.46 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 194 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a first-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 85% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 52% of a first-line career and 29% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 56 points a season at his best. If the scoring holds up against older players, the first-line odds go up with it.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite29%
- First-liner (most likely)52%
- Middle-sixer52%
- Fourth-liner85%
- Tweener94%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.00 P/GP
5 G, 3 A in 8 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−17%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#16
2026, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
56 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Québec Remparts | QMJHL | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.00 |
| Last season | Québec Remparts | QMJHL | 62 | 30 | 32 | 62 | 1.00 |