Prospect board, #9 overall
Tynan Lawrence
Centre, 18.1 years old, Boston Univ. (NCAA), 6′1″ 185 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
91%
Scouting report
Tynan Lawrence is an 18-year-old centre with Boston Univ. in the NCAA, a St Louis Blues first-round pick, 11 overall in 2026. He has 3 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, 1.25 a game, which works out to about 20 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. There are 6 other NHL draft picks on his roster. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
At 18.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a first-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 91% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 58% of a first-line career and 33% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 61 points a season at his best. If the scoring holds up against older players, the first-line odds go up with it.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite33%
- First-liner (most likely)58%
- Middle-sixer75%
- Fourth-liner91%
- Tweener95%+
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.25 P/GP
3 G, 2 A in 4 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
20 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−8%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#11
2026, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
61 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Boston Univ. | NCAA | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.25 |
| Last season | Boston Univ. | NCAA | 18 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.39 |
| Last season | Muskegon Lumberjacks | USHL | 13 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 1.31 |