Prospect board, #131 overall
Pierce Mbuyi
Left wing, 18.4 years old, Owen Sound Attack (OHL), 5′10″ 161 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
38%
Scouting report
Pierce Mbuyi is an 18-year-old left wing with Owen Sound Attack in the OHL, a Pittsburgh Penguins third-round pick, 86 overall in 2026. He has 8 goals and 5 assists in 11 games, 1.18 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 2.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.73 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 161 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 38% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 18% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 49 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner18%
- Middle-sixer27%
- Fourth-liner38%
- Tweener (most likely)55%
- AHLer87%
How he got there
1His line
1.18 P/GP
8 G, 5 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+39%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#86
2026, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
49 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Owen Sound Attack | OHL | 11 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 1.18 |
| Last season | Owen Sound Attack | OHL | 68 | 32 | 43 | 75 | 1.10 |