Prospect board, #124 overall
Nikita Shcherbakov
Defence, 18.9 years old, Salavat Yulaev Ufa (KHL), 6′3″ 187 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
51%
Scouting report
Nikita Shcherbakov is an 18-year-old defenceman with Salavat Yulaev Ufa in the KHL, a New Jersey Devils second-round pick, 44 overall in 2026. He has 2 goals and 4 assists in 17 games, 0.35 a game, which works out to about 22 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 18.9 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 187 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a third-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 51% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a top-pair career and 7% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 28 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite7%
- Top-pair10%
- Second-pair18%
- Third-pair (most likely)51%
- Tweener72%
- AHLer76%
How he got there
1His line
0.35 P/GP
2 G, 4 A in 17 games, KHL
2League exchange rate
22 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−5%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#44
2026, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Salavat Yulaev Ufa | KHL | 17 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.35 |
| Last season | Salavat Yulaev Ufa | KHL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Last season | Toros Neftekamsk | VHL | 35 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.29 |
| Last season | Tolpar Ufa | MHL | 15 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.67 |