Prospect board, #574 overall
Oscar Holmertz
Centre, 18.5 years old, BIK Karlskoga (ALLSVENSKAN), 6′0″ 187 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
12%
Scouting report
Oscar Holmertz is an 18-year-old centre with BIK Karlskoga in the ALLSVENSKAN, a Ottawa Senators third-round pick, 87 overall in 2026. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in 12 games, 0.25 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.00 a game last season.
At 18.5 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 187 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 12% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 5% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner12%
- Tweener40%
- AHLer (most likely)55%
How he got there
1His line
0.25 P/GP
2 G, 1 A in 12 games, ALLSVENSKAN
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+12%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#87
2026, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | BIK Karlskoga | ALLSVENSKAN | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.25 |
| Last season | Linköping HC | SHL | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |