Prospect board, #1029 overall
Tyler Duke
Defence, 22.2 years old, Univ. of Michigan (NCAA), 5′9″ 190 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
14%
Scouting report
Tyler Duke is a 22-year-old defenceman with Univ. of Michigan in the NCAA, on the Pittsburgh Penguins prospect list. He has 2 goals and 16 assists in 40 games, 0.45 a game, which works out to about 7 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. There are 4 other NHL draft picks on his roster. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 14% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair1%
- Second-pair2%
- Third-pair14%
- Tweener17%
- AHLer29%
How he got there
1His line
0.45 P/GP
2 G, 16 A in 40 games, NCAA
2League exchange rate
7 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−8%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Univ. of Michigan | NCAA | 40 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 0.45 |