Prospect board

The prospects we track, each with his likeliest NHL outcome and the odds of each tier. The odds come from what became of past draft picks with similar numbers, adjusted for league, age, draft slot and the team around him.

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#	Player	Team	Rights	GP	P/GP	Context	NHL odds	Top odds	Elite odds	Projection
1	Pierce MbuyiL, 18. Carrying a team, Edgy	Owen Sound AttackOHL	PIT#86, 2026	11	1.18	+39%	38%	18%	3%	Tweener
2	Jaxon CoverR, 18. Volume shooter, Steady	London KnightsOHL	OTT#32, 2026	6	1.17	−12%	43%	8%	3%	Tweener
3	Adam NemecL, 18. Playmaker, Steady	Brantford BulldogsOHL	OTT#72, 2026	18	0.89	−10%	28%	12%	4%	AHLer
4	Kieron WaltonC, 20. Heavy, Steady	Peterborough PetesOHL	WPG#187, 2024	62	1.42	+4%	19%	5%	<1%	AHLer
5	Travis HayesR, 19. Steady, Honest	Soo GreyhoundsOHL	PIT#105, 2025	11	0.73	+6%	18%	2%	<1%	AHLer
6	Spencer BowesL, 18. Carrying a team, Volume shooter	Ottawa 67'sOHL	NYR#102, 2026	10	1.20	+11%	18%	1%	<1%	AHLer
7	Carter StevensR, 18. Edgy, Stacked roster	Guelph StormOHL	STL#150, 2026	11	0.73	−18%	13%	<1%	<1%	Long shot
8	Jordan CharronR, 19. Steady, Honest	Soo GreyhoundsOHL	PIT#154, 2025	10	0.50	+3%	13%	<1%	<1%	Long shot
9	Cole ZurawskiR, 18. Volume shooter, Steady	Kingston FrontenacsOHL	FLA#181, 2026	10	0.60	−13%	8%	1%	<1%	Long shot
10	Shamar MosesR, 19. Carrying a team, Volume shooter	North Bay BattalionOHL	FLA#129, 2025	11	0.73	+25%	10%	<1%	<1%	Long shot
11	Noah ReadC, 19. Steady, Honest	Niagara IceDogsOHL	ANA#72, 2025	6	1.00	+12%	11%	<1%	<1%	Long shot
12	Quinn McKenzieC, 18. Playmaker, Volume shooter	Soo GreyhoundsOHL	NJD#222, 2026	11	0.82	+2%	8%	1%	<1%	Long shot
13	Darian AndersonR, 19. Rising, Running hot	Flint FirebirdsOHL	NYR#163, 2026	9	1.44	+4%	8%	<1%	<1%	Long shot
14	Colin FitzgeraldC, 18. Rising, Volume shooter	Soo GreyhoundsOHL	STL#203, 2026	11	1.00	+9%	7%	2%	<1%	Long shot
15	Parker HolmesL, 19. Rising, Heavy	Sarnia StingOHL	CHI#107, 2025	11	0.73	−11%	6%	<1%	<1%	Long shot

The tier is the highest one he has at least an even chance of reaching, which is why Elite is rare even near the top of the board. NHL odds is the chance he becomes a regular (150+ NHL games) and top odds the chance of a first-line or top-pair career, both from what happened to 2010 to 2017 draft picks with numbers like his. Defencemen are judged on defence scales. This is a points model, so it can't see play without the puck. Updated October 19.