Free NHL prop for Tuesday, October 20: Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots

The pick

We came up empty on game markets today. Nothing had the minimum edge for a free pick in a market where our model gets a real say, with the books on the same page. We could force a pick, but that'd be noise with a logo on it.

The free prop

So here's the prop: Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots on goal against Toronto, with Columbus hosting. We project 2.1 shots for him against a 1.6 average, and we put the over at 62%.

The workload backs it up. He's been getting 18:19 a game over his last three, which is 4.8 minutes more than his 13:30 average over the last year. The shot attempts have followed the ice time, 6.0 a game over his last five against 3.2 across the past year.

Yesterday

Yesterday's free pick was San Jose +1.5 at -190, and it lost. Toronto took it 3-1.

The prop side was kinder. Will Smith over 2.5 shots cashed with 4.

Last night

Philadelphia beat Colorado 3-2 and it wasn't a fluke, since the Flyers won the expected goals 3.0 to 2.3. Trevor Zegras piled up three assists for three points, and Matvei Michkov has now scored in 3 straight games.

Toronto beat San Jose 3-1, though the chances were close, 3.9 to 3.7 in expected goals. It was 1-1 heading into the third, and the Leafs had a stretch of three straight goals. Two of their goals came on the power play, and the empty-netter made the final look roomier than the game was. Auston Matthews had a goal and two assists. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 2.7 goals more than an average goalie would have on the same shots.

The Rangers beat the Ducks 5-2 and the chances agreed, 4.9 expected goals to 2.9. New York ran off five straight at one point. Oliver Bjorkstrand scored twice. Pavel Dorofeyev generated 1.6 expected goals on five shots and still didn't score, which is a rough night at the office.

Grit & GF on the slate

The top-rated skater playing tonight is Vasily Podkolzin of the Edmonton Oilers, at 99.9 on the Grit & GF scale. That's about as high as the scale goes.

There are 11 games tonight. Free picks go up before puck drop and get graded the next morning, wins and losses both. If you want to take tonight's props on yourself, Beat the Model lets you play them against ours.