Free NHL pick for Monday, October 19: San Jose Sharks +1.5 at Toronto Maple Leafs

The pick

Our free pick is the San Jose Sharks +1.5 at the Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 pm ET. Best price we found is -210 at BetMGM.

Pull the margin out of 9 books and the market lands at 65%. We have it at 67%, a 2.1-point edge. At -210 the expected return still comes out around -1.5 cents per dollar, so size your enthusiasm accordingly.

The model on its own says 70%. We only give it 25% of the say and let the market have the rest, since over two seasons of test games it ran about a sixth too confident.

Form is close. Over the last 10 games the Sharks have 44% of the expected goals and the Leafs 47%, so Toronto has a small edge there.

A +1.5 cashes on any win or a one-goal loss, and a little more than one game in five goes past regulation.

The model can't see injuries or morning-skate news. If the starting goalie changes, the price will move, and our number follows on the next odds pull.

The free prop

Will Smith over 2.5 shots on goal in Toronto. We project 2.8 against his 2.5 average, and we give the over 54%.

His ice time is up. He's played 21:56 a game over his last three, which is 3.4 minutes more than his 18:32 average over the last year of games. The volume is up too, at 6.4 shot attempts a game over his last five against 4.8 over that longer stretch.

Yesterday

The free prop, Bradly Nadeau over 0.5, won. He finished with 1 shot, which is all an over 0.5 needs.

Last night

The Wild beat the Blue Jackets 2-1 and earned it, out-chancing them 3.6 to 1.3 in expected goals. Matt Boldy put up 14 shot attempts, more than any other skater that night. Joel Eriksson Ek had 1.4 expected goals and didn't score. Minnesota also outshot Columbus 34-14.

The Flames got past the Hurricanes 3-2 despite losing the expected-goals count 2.6 to 4.2. It was level at 2 after two periods and got settled in the third. Jalen Chatfield scored for the first time in 21 games, and Sebastian Aho had 9 shot attempts.

Grit & GF on the slate

The highest-rated skater playing tonight is Jack McBain of the Utah Mammoth, at 99.6 on the Grit & GF scale.

There are 4 games tonight. Free picks go up before puck drop and get graded the next morning, wins and losses both. If you want to play tonight's props against our model, Beat the Model is the place.