Free NHL prop for Wednesday, October 21: Anton Lundell under 2.5 shots

The pick

No game market cleared our bar today: an edge of at least the free-pick minimum, from a market where the model has a say, with the books in agreement. Posting a pick anyway would be posting noise.

The free prop

Anton Lundell under 2.5 shots on goal at OTT. We project 1.9 shots against his 2.2 average and give the under 71%.

He has played 17:09 a game over his last three, 2.0 minutes less than an average of 19:10 over his last year of games.

Yesterday

The free prop, Kent Johnson over 1.5, lost with 0 shots.

Last night

The Stars won 3-2 in overtime and earned it, out-chancing the Bruins 4.0 to 2.3 in expected goals. The Stars were behind 1-2 after two periods. Hat trick for Mikko Rantanen. Wyatt Johnston had 11 shot attempts.

The Maple Leafs beat the Blue Jackets 6-2. Expected goals had it close, 2.8 to 3.1. The Maple Leafs scored five straight at one stage. Zach Werenski had 14 shot attempts, more than any other skater that night. Jake Christiansen scored for the first time in 80 games. The Blue Jackets outshot the Maple Leafs 37-22.

The Devils beat the Avalanche 4-3 in a game the chances had about even, 2.8 expected goals to 2.7. The Devils scored three straight at one stage. Timo Meier had 13 shot attempts. Arseny Gritsyuk has scored in 3 straight games.

Grit & GF on the slate

The highest-rated skater playing tonight is Garnet Hathaway of the Florida Panthers, at 96.9 on the Grit & GF scale.

2 games tonight. Free picks are posted before puck drop and graded the next morning, wins and losses both. You can play tonight's props against our model in Beat the Model.