Friday, October 16, 2026
- Expected goals, PIT–COL
- 3.6–3.8
- all situations, empty nets out
- COL share of xG
- 51.6%
- 50% is even
- Shots on goal
- 31–32
- PIT–COL
- Pre-game model
- COL 65%
- win chance, model game-0.3
The story
The Avalanche beat the Penguins 5-2 in a game the chances had about even, 3.8 expected goals to 3.6. The Avalanche scored five straight at one stage. The Avalanche trailed by two at one point. Nathan MacKinnon had four points, one goal and three assists. Three points for Martin Necas: three assists.
- Nathan MacKinnonBig night
Nathan MacKinnon had four points, one goal and three assists. He put 9 shots on goal, against an average of 4.1. The Avalanche beat the Penguins 5-2.
- Martin NecasBig night
Three points for Martin Necas: three assists. He has 10 points in 8 games this season. He played 20:58 and had one shot on goal. The Avalanche beat the Penguins 5-2.
- Artturi LehkonenTwo goals
Artturi Lehkonen had two goals. He also had 7 shot attempts against an average of 2.7. He had 2.4 expected goals, so the chances were there to match. It finished 5-2 for the Avalanche.
- Rickard RakellVolume
Rickard Rakell had 9 shot attempts. Five got through to the goalie, and none went in. He came in averaging 5.3 attempts a game. The Penguins fell 5-2 to the Avalanche.
Shot attempts
Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.
Where the shots came from
7 goals from 98 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:57 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| Declan Carlile D | 20:16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 2 | 32 |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:52 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 3 | 63 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:46 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 0 | 61 |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 19:32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 57 |
| Kris Letang D | 19:22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 85 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:51 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.80 | 0 | 0 | 72 |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 1 | 65 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:01 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Ville Koivunen R | 15:46 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 1 | 37 |
| Spencer Stastney D | 15:24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 76 |
| Tommy Novak C | 15:16 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
| Ben Kindel C | 14:57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| Connor Dewar C | 12:29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 11:03 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 0 | 73 |
| Nick Robertson L | 11:01 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 2 | 96 |
| Elmer Soderblom L | 10:55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 3 | 41 |
Colorado Avalanche
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:59 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0.81 | 0 | 1 | 61 |
| Devon Toews D | 22:54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| Cale Makar D | 22:19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 2 | 64 |
| Martin Necas C | 20:58 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 56 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:55 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 0 | 62 |
| Brock Nelson C | 20:27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.08 | 1 | 1 | 65 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:33 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Brett Kulak D | 17:47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 1 | 3 | 59 |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 14:56 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 1 | 63 |
| Josh Manson D | 14:41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Sam Malinski D | 14:23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 45 |
| Jaden Schwartz L | 14:03 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
| Brent Burns D | 13:39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| T.J. Hughes R | 12:27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Gavin Brindley C | 8:39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 2 | 0 | 26 |
| Noah Juulsen D | 7:33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
Pro: the line
How the line moved against our model is part of Pro
Pro: expected goals, minute by minute