Free NHL pick for Thursday, October 15: Buffalo Sabres +1.5 at Toronto Maple Leafs

The pick

Buffalo Sabres +1.5 at the Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 pm ET. The best price we found is -230 at FanDuel.

Take the margin out of 8 books and the market makes it 66%. We make it 71%, an edge of 4.9 points, worth about 2.3 cents per dollar at that price.

The model on its own says 79%. Our number gives it 25% of the say and the market the rest, because on two seasons of test games the model ran about a sixth too confident.

Over their last 10 games the Buffalo Sabres have 54% of the expected goals and the Toronto Maple Leafs 45%.

A +1.5 cashes with any win or a one-goal loss, and a little more than one game in five goes past regulation.

The model can't see injuries or morning-skate news. If the starting goalie changes, the price will move, and our number moves with it on the next odds pull.

The free prop

Thomas Chabot over 1.5 shots on goal vs NYI. We project 2.2 shots against his 1.9 average and give the over 65%.

He has played 28:08 a game over his last three, 4.5 minutes more than an average of 23:39 over his last year of games. He has averaged 6.8 shot attempts over his last five games, against 4.8 over his last year of games.

Yesterday

Yesterday's free pick was Under 6 goals in Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche at -101. It won. The final was Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 2.

The free prop, Jordan Kyrou under 1.5, lost with 3 shots.

Last night

The Capitals edged the Canadiens 5-4. Expected goals had it close, 2.8 to 3.4. Level at 3 after two, it was settled in the third. Alex Tuch had three points, two goals and one assist. Josh Anderson had two goals.

The Stars beat the Avalanche 3-2 in a shootout while losing the expected-goals count 2.0 to 2.6. Sam Malinski had 9 shot attempts. Nazem Kadri had two assists. Casey DeSmith made 25 saves for the Stars.

Grit & GF on the slate

The highest-rated skater playing tonight is Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks, at 99.9 on the Grit & GF scale.

11 games tonight. Free picks are posted before puck drop and graded the next morning, wins and losses both. You can play tonight's props against our model in Beat the Model.