GRIT & GF

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Buffalo Sabres

Toronto Maple Leafs

Final (OT)

Expected goals, BUF–TOR
3.1–2.9
all situations, empty nets out
TOR share of xG
48.0%
50% is even
Shots on goal
34–30
BUF–TOR
Pre-game model
TOR 38%
win chance, model game-0.3

The story

The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime in a game the chances had about even, 3.1 expected goals to 3.0. The Sabres scored three straight at one stage. The Sabres came back from two goals down. Hat trick for Kirill Marchenko. Dennis Gilbert scored for the first time in 49 games.

  • Hat trick for Kirill Marchenko. That makes 6 straight games with a point. That was his fourth goal of the season. The Maple Leafs lost 5-4 to the Sabres in overtime.

  • Dennis GilbertDrought over

    Dennis Gilbert scored for the first time in 49 games. That was his first goal of the season. It finished 5-4 for the Sabres in overtime.

  • Jack QuinnBig night

    Jack Quinn had four points, two goals and two assists. He has 4 goals this season. The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.

  • Owen PowerOvertime winner

    Owen Power won it in overtime. That was his second goal of the season. He played 28:01 and had two shots on goal. It finished 5-4 for the Sabres in overtime.

  • Auston Matthews has scored in 3 straight games. That makes 6 straight games with a point. The Maple Leafs fell 5-4 to the Sabres in overtime.

  • Mattias Samuelsson played 28:24, about 6 minutes more than his average this season. He has 2 goals this season. The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.

Shot attempts

Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.

BUFTOR

Where the shots came from

9 goals from 91 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.

GoalShot or miss
← BUF shootingTOR shooting →

Buffalo Sabres

SkaterTOIGASOGixGHitsBlkxGF%
Mattias Samuelsson D28:241130.190046
Owen Power D28:011020.360045
Olen Zellweger D24:280050.280139
Noah Ostlund C21:390210.060060
Zach Benson L21:180240.361060
Tage Thompson C21:110160.503041
Ryan McLeod C18:380020.132058
Jack Quinn R18:042240.700160
Josh Doan R17:220000.001031
Louis Crevier D16:260010.071062
Peyton Krebs C16:220010.023020
Konsta Helenius C15:110040.422053
Josh Norris C14:500000.001153
Zach Metsa D12:360100.000119
Dennis Gilbert D10:371010.040191
Beck Malenstyn L8:030000.002031
Justin Danforth R6:080000.000031
Sam Carrick C5:460000.00509

Toronto Maple Leafs

SkaterTOIGASOGixGHitsBlkxGF%
Darren Raddysh D27:090130.071363
Jake McCabe D23:300000.002049
William Nylander R22:180050.490055
Auston Matthews C22:141010.161156
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D19:350000.002169
Jack Roslovic C19:040150.390153
Kirill Marchenko R18:363030.493038
Morgan Rielly D18:350030.070028
Colton Sissons C17:490100.063263
Nick Paul L17:130010.081034
Troy Stecher D17:080010.021128
Easton Cowan R16:390120.263178
Nick Blankenburg D15:370020.250066
Teddy Blueger C14:430030.314074
John Tavares C11:470200.000114
Brandon Duhaime L11:420000.001163
Gavin McKenna L6:360010.250061
Zack MacEwen R5:270000.003051

How the line moved against our model is part of Pro

Each odds pull for this game, the best price on each side, and how the market moved against our number.

The minute-by-minute expected goals flow is part of Pro

The game measured in chance quality, minute by minute, which shows when it tilted and toward whom.