Thursday, October 15, 2026
Final (OT)
- Expected goals, BUF–TOR
- 3.1–2.9
- all situations, empty nets out
- TOR share of xG
- 48.0%
- 50% is even
- Shots on goal
- 34–30
- BUF–TOR
- Pre-game model
- TOR 38%
- win chance, model game-0.3
The story
The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime in a game the chances had about even, 3.1 expected goals to 3.0. The Sabres scored three straight at one stage. The Sabres came back from two goals down. Hat trick for Kirill Marchenko. Dennis Gilbert scored for the first time in 49 games.
- Kirill MarchenkoHat trick
Hat trick for Kirill Marchenko. That makes 6 straight games with a point. That was his fourth goal of the season. The Maple Leafs lost 5-4 to the Sabres in overtime.
- Dennis GilbertDrought over
Dennis Gilbert scored for the first time in 49 games. That was his first goal of the season. It finished 5-4 for the Sabres in overtime.
- Jack QuinnBig night
Jack Quinn had four points, two goals and two assists. He has 4 goals this season. The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.
- Owen PowerOvertime winner
Owen Power won it in overtime. That was his second goal of the season. He played 28:01 and had two shots on goal. It finished 5-4 for the Sabres in overtime.
- Auston MatthewsStreak
Auston Matthews has scored in 3 straight games. That makes 6 straight games with a point. The Maple Leafs fell 5-4 to the Sabres in overtime.
- Mattias SamuelssonIce time
Mattias Samuelsson played 28:24, about 6 minutes more than his average this season. He has 2 goals this season. The Sabres beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.
Shot attempts
Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.
Where the shots came from
9 goals from 91 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.
Buffalo Sabres
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 28:24 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
| Owen Power D | 28:01 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Olen Zellweger D | 24:28 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 1 | 39 |
| Noah Ostlund C | 21:39 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
| Zach Benson L | 21:18 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 0 | 60 |
| Tage Thompson C | 21:11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.50 | 3 | 0 | 41 |
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:38 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 0 | 58 |
| Jack Quinn R | 18:04 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 1 | 60 |
| Josh Doan R | 17:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 31 |
| Louis Crevier D | 16:26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 62 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| Konsta Helenius C | 15:11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 0 | 53 |
| Josh Norris C | 14:50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 53 |
| Zach Metsa D | 12:36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 19 |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 10:37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 91 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
| Justin Danforth R | 6:08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Sam Carrick C | 5:46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 27:09 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 1 | 3 | 63 |
| Jake McCabe D | 23:30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 49 |
| William Nylander R | 22:18 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Auston Matthews C | 22:14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 1 | 56 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 69 |
| Jack Roslovic C | 19:04 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.39 | 0 | 1 | 53 |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:36 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.49 | 3 | 0 | 38 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 18:35 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Colton Sissons C | 17:49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 3 | 2 | 63 |
| Nick Paul L | 17:13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 0 | 34 |
| Troy Stecher D | 17:08 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Easton Cowan R | 16:39 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 3 | 1 | 78 |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 15:37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 66 |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | 4 | 0 | 74 |
| John Tavares C | 11:47 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| Brandon Duhaime L | 11:42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 63 |
| Gavin McKenna L | 6:36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 61 |
| Zack MacEwen R | 5:27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 51 |
Pro: the line
How the line moved against our model is part of Pro
Pro: expected goals, minute by minute