Blog · Daily free pick
Free NHL prop for Saturday, October 17: Matthew Schaefer over 2.5 shots
No game market cleared our bar today. The free prop is Matthew Schaefer over 2.5 shots on goal.
. Written by our daily job from the numbers on the site, before puck drop.
The pick
No game market cleared our bar today: an edge of at least the free-pick minimum, from a market where the model has a say, with the books in agreement. Posting a pick anyway would be posting noise.
The free prop
Over 2.5 shots
Matthew Schaefer, NYI at TOR
No book line yet
- We project
- 3.2
- His average
- 2.8
- Our chance
- 62%
Matthew Schaefer over 2.5 shots on goal at TOR. We project 3.2 shots against his 2.8 average and give the over 62%.
He has played 27:20 a game over his last three, 2.4 minutes more than an average of 24:55 over his last year of games. He has averaged 9.4 shot attempts over his last five games, against 6.5 over his last year of games.
Yesterday
The free prop, Beckett Sennecke over 2.5, lost with 1 shots.
Last night
The Avalanche beat the Penguins 5-2 in a game the chances had about even, 3.8 expected goals to 3.6. The Avalanche scored five straight at one stage. The Avalanche trailed by two at one point. Nathan MacKinnon had four points, one goal and three assists. Three points for Martin Necas: three assists.
The Bruins beat the Ducks 4-2. Expected goals had it close, 3.1 to 3.7. The Bruins scored four straight at one stage. Three of the Bruins' goals came on the power play. The Bruins trailed by two at one point. Roger McQueen had 10 shot attempts.
Grit & GF on the slate
The highest-rated skater playing tonight is Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks, at 99.9 on the Grit & GF scale.
14 games tonight. Free picks are posted before puck drop and graded the next morning, wins and losses both. You can play tonight's props against our model in Beat the Model.
Play Beat the Model · Model report card · What an edge means
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