Free NHL prop for Sunday, October 18: Bradly Nadeau over 0.5 shots

The pick

No game market cleared our bar today: an edge of at least the free-pick minimum, from a market where the model has a say, with the books in agreement. Posting a pick anyway would be posting noise.

The free prop

Bradly Nadeau over 0.5 shots on goal at CGY. We project 1.4 shots against his 1.0 average and give the over 75%.

He has played 16:04 a game over his last three, 2.9 minutes more than an average of 13:08 over his last year of games.

Yesterday

Yesterday's free pick was Washington Capitals to win at +100. It won. The final was New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 4.

The free prop, Matthew Schaefer over 2.5, won with 5 shots.

Last night

The Panthers won 8-3 and earned it, out-chancing the Kraken 4.0 to 1.8 in expected goals. The Panthers scored five straight at one stage. Two of the Panthers' goals came on the power play. Hat trick for Carter Verhaeghe. Sam Bennett scored three goals.

The Sharks created more, 4.2 expected goals to 3.2, and lost 4-3 in a shootout to the Red Wings. The Sharks scored three straight at one stage. Both power plays scored, one for the Red Wings and two for the Sharks. The Red Wings trailed by two at one point. Macklin Celebrini had 16 shot attempts, more than any other skater that night. Will Smith had 12 shot attempts, his most in a game since 2023-24.

The Blue Jackets beat the Rangers 1-0 in overtime in a game the chances had about even, 3.0 expected goals to 3.2. Jet Greaves stopped all 29 shots for the shutout. Kent Johnson scored the overtime winner.

Grit & GF on the slate

The highest-rated skater playing tonight is Adam Fantilli of the Columbus Blue Jackets, at 99.2 on the Grit & GF scale.

2 games tonight. Free picks are posted before puck drop and graded the next morning, wins and losses both. You can play tonight's props against our model in Beat the Model.