Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Final (SO)
- Expected goals, BUF–MTL
- 2.3–3.5
- all situations, empty nets out
- MTL share of xG
- 60.9%
- 50% is even
- Shots on goal
- 17–38
- BUF–MTL
- Pre-game model
- MTL 52%
- win chance, model game-0.2
The story
The Canadiens won 4-3 in a shootout and earned it, out-chancing the Sabres 3.4 to 2.2 in expected goals. The Canadiens scored three straight at one stage. Olen Zellweger scored twice. The Canadiens outshot the Sabres 38-17.
- Olen ZellwegerTwo goals
Olen Zellweger scored twice. He played 25:49, about 8 minutes over his average. That was his second goal of the season. The Sabres fell 4-3 to the Canadiens in a shootout.
Shot attempts
Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.
BUFMTL
0204060
BUF 27MTL 48
1st2nd3rdOT
Where the shots came from
6 goals from 75 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.
GoalShot or miss
← BUF shootingMTL shooting →
Buffalo Sabres
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power D | 28:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 26:38 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 54 |
| Olen Zellweger D | 25:49 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| Tage Thompson C | 22:26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 1 | 42 |
| Noah Ostlund C | 19:40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 0 | 70 |
| Zach Benson L | 19:36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 3 | 1 | 91 |
| Jack Quinn R | 19:01 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.35 | 3 | 0 | 92 |
| Josh Doan R | 17:23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 2 | 35 |
| Jiri Kulich C | 16:51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Zach Metsa D | 14:58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Konsta Helenius C | 14:15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| Louis Crevier D | 12:43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 49 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:55 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 | 59 |
| Josh Norris C | 11:51 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 2 | 0 | 46 |
| Justin Danforth R | 9:58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 56 |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 8:41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 0 | 39 |
Montreal Canadiens
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson D | 27:07 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 25:25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 61 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:32 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.85 | 1 | 3 | 57 |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 1 | 3 | 60 |
| Cole Caufield R | 19:46 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 0 | 56 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:41 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 1 | 67 |
| Noah Dobson D | 18:56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 5 | 1 | 38 |
| Phillip Danault C | 17:25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 0 | 57 |
| Alex Newhook C | 15:19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 73 |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 0 | 54 |
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:36 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.34 | 2 | 0 | 51 |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 56 |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Chris Kreider L | 13:50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Jake Evans C | 13:42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 1 | 44 |
| Adam Engstrom D | 13:22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | 1 | 0 | 66 |
| Kirby Dach C | 9:40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 2 | 1 | 46 |
| Owen Beck C | 6:59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 1 | 52 |
Pro: the line
How the line moved against our model is part of Pro
Each odds pull for this game, the best price on each side, and how the market moved against our number.
Pro: expected goals, minute by minute
The minute-by-minute expected goals flow is part of Pro
The game measured in chance quality, minute by minute, which shows when it tilted and toward whom.