Tuesday, October 13, 2026
- Expected goals, STL–OTT
- 3.7–1.8
- all situations, empty nets out
- OTT share of xG
- 33.3%
- 50% is even
- Shots on goal
- 26–17
- STL–OTT
- Pre-game model
- OTT 62%
- win chance, model game-0.2
The story
The Blues beat the Senators 7-2, and the chances agreed: 3.6 expected goals to 1.7. The Blues scored five straight at one stage. Both power plays scored, one for the Blues and one for the Senators. Three points for Pavel Buchnevich: three assists. Three points for Pius Suter: two goals and one assist.
- Pavel BuchnevichBig night
Three points for Pavel Buchnevich: three assists. He has 5 points in 6 games this season. He played 18:23 and had one shot on goal. The Blues beat the Senators 7-2.
- Pius SuterBig night
Three points for Pius Suter: two goals and one assist. He has 3 goals this season. He played 15:21 and had four shots on goal. The Blues beat the Senators 7-2.
- Mason McTavishBig night
Three points for Mason McTavish: two goals and one assist. He also had 9 shot attempts against an average of 5.4. His goal stood up as the winner. The Blues beat the Senators 7-2.
- Samuel ErssonRough night
Samuel Ersson allowed 7 goals on shots worth 3.6 expected goals. That is 3.4 more than an average goalie would have given up. The Senators lost 7-2 to the Blues.
- Jake NeighboursTwo goals
Jake Neighbours had two goals. That was his third goal of the season. He played 16:05 and had three shots on goal. It finished 7-2 for the Blues.
Shot attempts
Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.
Where the shots came from
9 goals from 67 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.
St Louis Blues
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Fowler D | 22:15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 64 |
| Philip Broberg D | 22:06 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3 | 65 |
| Colton Parayko D | 19:33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 1 | 76 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 64 |
| Justin Barron D | 18:28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 3 | 78 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:23 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 2 | 80 |
| Robert Thomas C | 17:53 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 1 | 1 | 41 |
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:05 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 2 | 60 |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 16:00 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 61 |
| Dylan Holloway L | 15:57 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 1 | 47 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 15:46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
| Mason McTavish C | 15:29 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.79 | 1 | 1 | 91 |
| Pius Suter C | 15:21 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.61 | 3 | 0 | 88 |
| Adam Jiricek D | 15:04 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 1 | 61 |
| Connor McMichael L | 14:24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 89 |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 13:29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 76 |
| Ross Johnston L | 9:18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 4 | 0 | 86 |
| Dylan Peterson C | 8:57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 91 |
Ottawa Senators
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 2 | 54 |
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 22:25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 4 | 23 |
| Tim Stützle C | 22:03 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 2 | 0 | 58 |
| Jordan Spence D | 20:49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 37 |
| Tyler Kleven D | 19:32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| Shane Pinto C | 18:18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 0 | 37 |
| Drake Batherson R | 17:44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 45 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 3 | 0 | 36 |
| Claude Giroux R | 16:59 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 48 |
| Stephen Halliday C | 14:32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michael Amadio R | 14:12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 33 |
| Ridly Greig C | 14:08 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:55 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| Hoyt Stanley D | 11:50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 0 | 40 |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 1 | 71 |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jorian Donovan D | 9:14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 32 |
Pro: the line
How the line moved against our model is part of Pro
Pro: expected goals, minute by minute