GRIT & GF

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Tampa Bay Lightning

New York Islanders

Expected goals, TBL–NYI
2.5–2.4
all situations, empty nets out
NYI share of xG
49.0%
50% is even
Shots on goal
26–23
TBL–NYI
Pre-game model
–
no projection stored

The story

The Lightning beat the Islanders 5-3 in a game the chances had about even, 2.4 expected goals to 2.4. The Lightning led from the first goal on. Level at 3 after two, it was settled in the third. Both power plays scored, one for the Lightning and one for the Islanders. One of the goals went into an empty net. Brandon Hagel scored three goals and added one assist. Matthew Schaefer had 12 shot attempts.

  • Brandon HagelHat trick

    Brandon Hagel scored three goals and added one assist. His goal with under five minutes left was the winner. His 1.6 expected goals say the goals were no fluke. It finished 5-3 for the Lightning.

  • Matthew Schaefer had 12 shot attempts. Eight reached the net and none went in. He came in averaging 7.5 attempts a game. The Islanders fell 5-3 to the Lightning.

  • Jake GuentzelTwo goals

    Jake Guentzel scored twice. He has 3 goals this season. He played 19:29 and had four shots on goal. It finished 5-3 for the Lightning.

  • Nikita Kucherov has a point in 5 straight games. He has 8 points in 5 games this season. He played 17:46 and had one shot on goal. It finished 5-3 for the Lightning.

  • Bo HorvatStreak

    Bo Horvat has a point in 5 straight games. He has 6 points in 5 games this season. The Islanders fell 5-3 to the Lightning.

  • Tony DeAngeloDrought over

    Tony DeAngelo scored for the first time in 16 games. That was his first goal of the season. The Islanders fell 5-3 to the Lightning.

Shot attempts

Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.

TBLNYI

Where the shots came from

8 goals from 63 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.

GoalShot or miss
← TBL shootingNYI shooting →

Tampa Bay Lightning

SkaterTOIGASOGixGHitsBlkxGF%
Brandon Hagel L21:323161.633460
John Carlson D20:430010.092134
Jake Guentzel C19:292040.371057
Erik Cernak D19:010010.063234
Brayden Point C18:570010.270026
Gage Goncalves C18:130000.000236
Anthony Cirelli C18:040100.081170
Nikita Kucherov R17:460210.110138
Pontus Holmberg R17:370000.000024
J.J. Moser D17:010010.010136
Max Crozier D16:300220.021155
Ryan McDonagh D15:560110.010229
Ilya Mikheyev R15:160000.001012
Zemgus Girgensons C15:130040.332012
Charle-Edouard D'Astous D13:300020.020042
Conor Geekie C11:280010.142153
Victor Hedman D10:340100.000059
Scott Sabourin R9:290010.152053

New York Islanders

SkaterTOIGASOGixGHitsBlkxGF%
Matthew Schaefer D27:070180.351083
Adam Pelech D21:110000.010228
Bo Horvat C20:150130.474088
Logan Stanley D19:380020.053068
Ryan Pulock D19:140000.001334
Brayden Schenn C17:201020.654233
Tony DeAngelo D16:331120.130170
Ondrej Palat L15:290100.093375
Kyle Palmieri C15:160000.000088
Scott Mayfield D14:450010.073071
Jean-Gabriel Pageau C14:411010.233151
Matias Maccelli L14:290100.000026
Emil Heineman L13:410020.172190
Calum Ritchie C13:370010.010228
Victor Eklund R13:250000.004345
Simon Holmstrom R13:180000.000014
Anthony Duclair L13:170010.130051
Casey Cizikas C10:100000.002038

The minute-by-minute expected goals flow is part of Pro

The game measured in chance quality, minute by minute, which shows when it tilted and toward whom.