2026–27 regular season

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 6-2-0 with 12 points in 2026–27, 8th of 32 in the league, with 25 goals for and 21 against. They have 57.2% of the expected goals in their games, more than their opponents. Our simulation gives them 82% to make the playoffs.

Compare with another team

Record: 6–2–0; 12 points, 8th of 32
Goals: 25–21; +4 differential
Expected goals: 26.6–19.9; for and against
xG share: 57.2%; 50% is even

82% to make the playoffs, 30% to win the division, about 103 points projected (90 to 116 in 80% of simulated seasons). The whole race

Who's had the puck

Share of expected goals over a rolling ten games. Above 50 they are out-chancing opponents. Hover any game.

4550556065

57.2%

2026-10-012026-10-17

How the chances come

Share of expected goals by shot type. Rebounds count first when a shot is both.

Set playOff the rushRebound

For 27 xG83%
League 79%15%
Against 20 xG77%19%

Off the rush means a shot within 4 seconds of the last recorded play being in the neutral or defensive zone. A rebound is a shot within 3 seconds of a teammate's shot. Set plays are the rest: the cycle, point shots, forecheck turnovers, faceoff plays.

Lines and pairs

Best units in the league

The coach's most-used 5-on-5 combinations this season, by time together, and how they did.

Forward lines

Unit	GP	TOI	Attempts	xG	Goals	xG share
Girgensons – Holmberg – Mikheyev	7	72:15	62–64	2.8–2.2	5–1	56%
Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel	8	49:51	64–38	2.7–1.8	4–3	60%
Kucherov – Point – Goncalves	7	47:10	62–35	2.8–0.9	3–0	75%
Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel	8	27:45	32–16	1.9–0.9	0–1	68%
Guentzel – Point – Goncalves	7	12:15	16–13	0.5–0.3	1–0	61%
Kucherov – Guentzel – Point	7	10:50	12–8	0.5–0.4	0–0	57%

Defence pairs

Unit	GP	TOI	Attempts	xG	Goals	xG share
Carlson – Moser	8	99:51	128–82	5.4–3.6	2–3	60%
McDonagh – Cernak	8	76:20	73–60	3.2–2.0	6–3	61%
D'Astous – Crozier	4	43:14	42–33	1.5–1.5	0–2	51%
Hedman – Cernak	8	35:06	41–29	2.2–0.9	2–0	71%

Speed and zone time

NHL EDGE tracking, 2026–27. A full bar is first in the league.

Skating

Top speed23.4 mph
74
Bursts over 22 mph7
32
Bursts over 20 mph204
52

Shooting

Hardest shot94.9 mph
52
Shots over 90 mph5
65

Zone time

Offensive zone time42.8%
84
Defensive zone time39.1%
84

League ranks

Points %75.0%4th

Goals for per game3.1314th

Goals against per game2.639th

xG for per game3.336th

xG against per game2.494th

xG share57.2%5th

Finishing (goals − xG)−1.625th

Goaltending (xGA − goals against)−1.119th

Rush xG per game0.219th

Rebound xG per game0.3725th

Rush xG allowed per game0.116th

Where they shoot from

Unblocked attempts over the last 8 games, attacking right.

GoalShot or miss

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score	xG	xG share
10-17	vs VAN	4–2	3.5–1.8	66%
10-15	vs SEA	4–3	3.9–3.2	55%
10-13	at NYR	1–4	2.4–2.5	49%
10-10	at NYI	5–3	2.5–2.4	51%
10-08	vs MIN	3–2	3.6–3.1	54%
10-05	vs PHI	4–1	4.4–1.8	71%
10-03	vs WSH	3–1	3.5–2.3	60%
10-01	at NYR	1–5	2.8–2.8	50%

Skaters

Player	Pos	GP	G	A	P	ixG	TOI/GP	Hits	xGF% 5v5
Brandon Hagel	L	8	6	5	11	7.4	21:52	6	60.5
Nikita Kucherov	R	8	3	7	10	3.2	21:43	1	63.6
Jake Guentzel	C	8	4	5	9	3.4	20:12	5	57.4
Brayden Point	C	8	1	5	6	3.2	19:13	1	60.4
Pontus Holmberg	R	8	2	3	5	4.3	14:37	4	55.8
John Carlson	D	8	2	2	4	1.3	19:57	8	57.9
Ilya Mikheyev	R	8	2	2	4	1.5	14:33	9	55.7
Anthony Cirelli	C	8	1	2	3	1.4	17:49	6	65.3
Victor Hedman	D	8	1	2	3	0.7	14:08	3	53.2
Zemgus Girgensons	C	8	1	1	2	0.9	13:43	26	55.7
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	D	7	1	1	2	0.4	14:54	7	57.9
Max Crozier	D	5	0	2	2	0.3	16:46	11	53.0
Ryan McDonagh	D	8	0	1	1	0.1	15:24	2	51.0
Dominic James	C	2	0	1	1	0.2	12:59	7	24.1
Conor Geekie	C	8	1	0	1	1.1	11:40	22	44.5
Erik Cernak	D	8	0	1	1	1.4	18:51	18	64.7
Jansen Harkins	C	1	0	0	0	0.2	10:55	5	30.6
Emil Lilleberg	D	3	0	0	0	0.1	12:15	4	52.5
Jeffrey Viel	L	6	0	0	0	0.8	8:55	20	48.1
Gage Goncalves	C	7	0	0	0	1.2	15:57	9	60.8
Scott Sabourin	R	1	0	0	0	0.1	9:29	2	53.4
J.J. Moser	D	8	0	0	0	1.1	18:04	3	59.9