SEA at TBL, 2026-10-15

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Seattle Kraken

Tampa Bay Lightning

Final (OT)

Expected goals, SEA–TBL: 3.2–3.9; all situations, empty nets out
TBL share of xG: 54.8%; 50% is even
Shots on goal: 27–35; SEA–TBL
Pre-game model: TBL 73%; win chance, model game-0.3

The story

The Lightning edged the Kraken 4-3 in overtime. Expected goals had it close, 3.9 to 3.3. Victor Hedman won it in overtime. Nikita Kucherov had 12 shot attempts. Brandon Hagel had two goals.

Victor HedmanOvertime winner
Victor Hedman won it in overtime. It was his first goal in 15 games. That was his first goal of the season. The Lightning beat the Kraken 4-3 in overtime.
Nikita KucherovVolume
Nikita Kucherov had 12 shot attempts. Eight got through to the goalie, and none went in. His average this season was 5.7. The Lightning beat the Kraken 4-3 in overtime.
Conor GeekiePhysical
Conor Geekie threw 7 hits, his most in a game since 2023-24. He has 1 point in 7 games this season. The Lightning beat the Kraken 4-3 in overtime.
Brandon HagelTwo goals
Brandon Hagel had two goals. He has 6 goals this season. He played 23:24 and had six shots on goal. The Lightning beat the Kraken 4-3 in overtime.
J.J. MoserIce time
J.J. Moser played 22:56, about 6 minutes more than his average this season. He has 0 points in 7 games this season. It finished 4-3 for the Lightning in overtime.
Zemgus GirgensonsPhysical
Zemgus Girgensons threw 7 hits. He has 2 points in 7 games this season. He played 15:11 and had one shot on goal. It finished 4-3 for the Lightning in overtime.

Shot attempts

Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.

SEATBL

0204060

SEA 40TBL 49

1st2nd3rdOT

Where the shots came from

7 goals from 89 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.

GoalShot or miss

← SEA shootingTBL shooting →

Seattle Kraken

Skater	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	Hits	Blk	xGF%
Vince Dunn D	28:24	0	1	1	0.20	1	1	44
Adam Larsson D	27:18	0	0	2	0.06	1	1	40
Ryker Evans D	26:50	0	0	2	0.02	3	1	53
Frederick Gaudreau C	17:52	0	1	0	0.00	0	1	86
Jordan Eberle R	17:25	0	1	1	0.07	0	1	25
Chandler Stephenson C	17:16	0	1	0	0.07	0	0	28
Matty Beniers C	16:53	1	0	2	0.23	0	0	38
Josh Mahura D	16:27	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	72
Bobby McMann C	16:24	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	22
Jared McCann L	16:21	1	0	3	0.40	0	0	45
Ryan Winterton C	15:18	1	0	4	0.91	0	1	86
Ben Meyers C	14:25	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	92
Mackie Samoskevich R	13:48	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	50
Shane Wright C	12:39	0	0	4	0.70	0	2	54
Berkly Catton C	12:26	0	0	2	0.23	1	0	59
Ville Ottavainen D	11:16	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	72
Kaapo Kakko R	11:14	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	63
Brandon Montour D	8:05	0	0	2	0.29	0	2	51

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	Hits	Blk	xGF%
Brandon Hagel L	23:24	2	0	6	1.19	1	0	55
J.J. Moser D	22:56	0	0	2	0.15	0	1	54
Nikita Kucherov R	22:16	0	0	8	0.62	1	0	44
John Carlson D	21:35	0	0	1	0.15	0	1	53
Jake Guentzel C	19:24	0	1	2	0.43	0	1	37
Brayden Point C	18:33	0	1	1	0.13	1	0	43
Anthony Cirelli C	18:19	0	1	1	0.05	1	0	60
Victor Hedman D	17:13	1	0	2	0.26	0	0	40
Ryan McDonagh D	16:49	0	0	2	0.08	0	1	35
Dominic James C	15:25	0	1	1	0.21	3	0	27
Zemgus Girgensons C	15:11	0	0	1	0.05	7	0	64
Ilya Mikheyev R	14:57	1	0	3	0.29	1	0	74
Erik Cernak D	14:55	0	0	3	0.05	1	2	88
Pontus Holmberg R	14:04	0	1	1	0.17	1	1	75
Conor Geekie C	13:29	0	0	0	0.00	7	0	21
Max Crozier D	12:33	0	0	1	0.01	2	0	39
Jeffrey Viel L	10:48	0	0	0	0.07	4	0	10
Emil Lilleberg D	10:23	0	0	0	0.01	0	1	14

Pro: the line

How the line moved against our model is part of Pro

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Pro: expected goals, minute by minute

The minute-by-minute expected goals flow is part of Pro

The game measured in chance quality, minute by minute, which shows when it tilted and toward whom.

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