Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Expected goals, NYI–TOR
- 2.1–3.3
- all situations, empty nets out
- TOR share of xG
- 61.6%
- 50% is even
- Shots on goal
- 20–29
- NYI–TOR
- Pre-game model
- TOR 34%
- win chance, model game-0.3
The story
The Maple Leafs created more, 3.3 expected goals to 2.1, and lost 4-1 to the Islanders. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. An empty-netter made the final score look roomier than the game was. Simon Holmstrom had two goals.
- Simon HolmstromTwo goals
Simon Holmstrom had two goals. He has 3 goals this season. He played 20:01 and had two shots on goal. The Islanders beat the Maple Leafs 4-1.
Shot attempts
Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.
NYITOR
0204060
NYI 35TOR 41
1st2nd3rd
Where the shots came from
5 goals from 76 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.
GoalShot or miss
← NYI shootingTOR shooting →
New York Islanders
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 24:21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 0 | 44 |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 24:21 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Logan Stanley D | 22:17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 2 | 0 | 64 |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 4 | 0 | 39 |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 20:01 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | 2 | 0 | 40 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:31 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 3 | 2 | 57 |
| Adam Pelech D | 18:54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 39 |
| Emil Heineman L | 16:31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.22 | 6 | 0 | 46 |
| Matthew Kessel D | 16:18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 46 |
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 15:09 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:34 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 1 | 73 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 54 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 77 |
| Victor Eklund R | 12:55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 4 | 0 | 23 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 5:39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| Calum Ritchie C | 0:28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 24:21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 56 |
| William Nylander R | 20:34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| Troy Stecher D | 20:21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 51 |
| Jake McCabe D | 19:57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 2 | 2 | 45 |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 4 | 29 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 61 |
| Gavin McKenna L | 17:56 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.63 | 0 | 0 | 54 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 17:50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 2 | 35 |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.52 | 0 | 0 | 63 |
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:54 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.59 | 1 | 3 | 31 |
| Colton Sissons C | 15:08 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 65 |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 36 |
| Easton Cowan R | 14:41 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 1 | 70 |
| Nick Paul L | 14:36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 4 | 0 | 65 |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 13:39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 0 | 55 |
| Brandon Duhaime L | 11:53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 2 | 0 | 69 |
| Bo Groulx C | 10:00 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 86 |
| Zack MacEwen R | 9:43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 5 | 0 | 57 |
Pro: the line
How the line moved against our model is part of Pro
Each odds pull for this game, the best price on each side, and how the market moved against our number.
Pro: expected goals, minute by minute
The minute-by-minute expected goals flow is part of Pro
The game measured in chance quality, minute by minute, which shows when it tilted and toward whom.