GRIT & GF

Prospect board

The prospects we track, each with his likeliest NHL outcome and the odds of each tier. The odds come from what became of past draft picks with similar numbers, adjusted for league, age, draft slot and the team around him.

#PlayerTeamRightsGPP/GPContextNHL oddsTop oddsElite oddsProjection
1Chase ReidD, 18. Young for the league, SteadyMichigan State Univ.NCAASEA#7, 202631.67−7%92%77%48%Top-pair
2Tynan LawrenceC, 18. Young for the league, SteadyBoston Univ.NCAASTL#11, 202641.25−8%91%58%33%First-liner
3Michael HageC, 20. Playmaker, SteadyUniv. of MichiganNCAAMTL#21, 202462.33−1%90%34%28%Middle-sixer
4Vaclav NestrasilR, 19. Young for the league, Big frameUniv. of MassachusettsNCAACHI#25, 202560.50+5%62%24%15%Middle-sixer
5Casey MutrynR, 18. Young for the league, SteadyBoston CollegeNCAASEA#38, 202630.00−5%60%22%13%Fourth-liner
6Mason WestC, 19. Edgy, Young for the leagueMichigan State Univ.NCAACHI#29, 202530.00−7%54%12%2%Fourth-liner
7Logan HenslerD, 19. Steady, HonestUniv. of WisconsinNCAAOTT#23, 202540.75+10%75%7%4%Third-pair?
8Charlie CerratoC, 21. Playmaker, SteadyPenn State Univ.NCAACAR#49, 2025231.17+4%56%9%4%Fourth-liner?
9Ryder CaliC, 18. Young for the league, HeavyProvidence CollegeNCAAFLA#48, 202630.67−1%52%11%2%Fourth-liner
10Matias VanhanenL, 19. Young for the league, EdgyBoston CollegeNCAANJD#37, 202631.00−5%47%17%6%Tweener
11EJ EmeryD, 20. Big frame, SteadyUniv. of North DakotaNCAANYR#30, 202440.50+10%57%2%<1%Third-pair
12Jayson ShaugabayR, 21. Playmaker, UndersizedUniv. of Minnesota-DuluthNCAATBL#115, 202361.50+5%44%6%2%Tweener
13Teddy StigaC, 20. Steady, HonestBoston CollegeNCAANSH#55, 202430.33−5%42%4%2%Tweener
14Malcolm SpenceL, 19. Edgy, SteadyUniv. of MichiganNCAANYR#43, 202561.17−3%40%5%3%Tweener
15John MustardC, 20. Steady, HonestProvidence CollegeNCAACHI#67, 202430.67−3%37%7%1%Tweener
16Logan SawyerC, 20. Steady, HonestProvidence CollegeNCAAMTL#78, 202431.67−3%32%9%2%AHLer
17John MooneyC, 19. Edgy, Young for the leagueUniv. of MinnesotaNCAAMTL#113, 202520.00−1%35%6%2%Tweener
18Adam BenakC, 19. Young for the league, UndersizedWestern Michigan Univ.NCAAMIN#102, 202541.75−3%28%9%2%AHLer
19Nathan BehmR, 19. Young for the league, SteadyArizona State Univ.NCAACHI#66, 202560.67−3%25%10%3%AHLer
20Blake FiddlerD, 19. Young for the league, HeavyUniv. of DenverNCAASEA#36, 202540.00−1%35%<1%<1%Tweener
21Ryder RitchieR, 20. Steady, HonestBoston Univ.NCAAMIN#45, 202430.67−9%34%2%1%AHLer
22Ben MacBeathD, 18. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of DenverNCAANYR#64, 202640.25−1%24%5%2%AHLer
23Maxim MasséR, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of MassachusettsNCAAANA#66, 202460.67−1%21%6%3%AHLer
24Jayden PerronR, 21. Sniper, UndersizedUniv. of MichiganNCAACAR#94, 202362.50−5%24%3%1%AHLer
25Eric NilsonC, 19. Young for the league, SteadyMichigan State Univ.NCAAANA#45, 202531.67−8%34%<1%<1%AHLer
26Miguel MarquesR, 20. Steady, HonestNortheastern Univ.NCAANSH#87, 202431.67+10%24%3%1%AHLer
27Luke SchairerD, 18. Young for the league, SteadyBoston CollegeNCAASTL#75, 202620.00−7%31%2%<1%AHLer
28Christopher PelosiC, 21. Steady, HonestQuinnipiac Univ.NCAABOS#92, 202351.00+10%21%2%<1%AHLer
29Conrad FondrkC, 19. Young for the league, SteadyBoston Univ.NCAANJD#50, 202520.00−9%33%1%<1%AHLer?
30Austin BurnevikR, 21. Big frame, SteadyUniv. of MinnesotaNCAAANA#182, 202440.25−1%20%3%<1%AHLer
31Viktor NorringerL, 20. Big frame, SteadyBoston Univ.NCAANSH#127, 202430.33−10%22%3%2%AHLer
32Chase CheslockD, 21. Heavy, SteadyUniv. of St. ThomasNCAANJD#154, 202321.00+5%24%1%<1%AHLer
33Clarke CaswellL, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of DenverNCAASEA#141, 202441.00−3%21%2%<1%AHLer
34Jackson CrowderC, 19. Young for the league, SteadyOhio State Univ.NCAAWSH#155, 202510.00+5%21%3%2%Long shot
35Ben KevanR, 19. Steady, HonestArizona State Univ.NCAANJD#63, 202550.60−1%17%2%<1%AHLer
36Ollie JosephsonC, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of North DakotaNCAASEA#105, 202440.00+1%21%1%<1%AHLer
37Vladislav LukashevichD, 23. Playmaker, SteadyMiami Univ. (Ohio)NCAAFLA#120, 2021330.64+9%24%<1%<1%AHLer?
38William TomkoC, 19. Steady, HonestOhio State Univ.NCAASEA#204, 202640.50+5%16%4%<1%AHLer
39Sam HarrisL, 22. Edgy, SteadyUniv. of DenverNCAAMTL#133, 202341.00−3%12%<1%<1%AHLer
40Javon MooreL, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of MinnesotaNCAAOTT#112, 202440.00−1%17%1%<1%AHLer
41Garrett BrownD, 22. Playmaker, SteadyUniv. of DenverNCAAWPG#99, 2022340.41020%1%<1%Long shot
42Ryan WalshC, 23. Playmaker, SteadyCornell Univ.NCAABOS#188, 2023331.00+4%14%<1%<1%AHLer?
43Julius SumpfC, 21. Steady, HonestProvidence CollegeNCAACHI#98, 202532.00−3%16%<1%<1%AHLer
44Barrett HallC, 22. Edgy, SteadyUniv. of Minnesota-DuluthNCAASEA#164, 202260.67+5%11%<1%<1%AHLer
45Joey MuldowneyR, 22. Steady, HonestUniv. of ConnecticutNCAASJS#172, 202240.50−5%14%<1%<1%AHLer
46Drew SchockD, 19. Steady, HonestUniv. of MichiganNCAAANA#101, 202561.33−5%18%<1%<1%Long shot
47Lirim AmidovskiR, 19. Steady, HonestUniv. of ConnecticutNCAAMIN#121, 202540.25−5%17%<1%<1%Long shot
48Cole BrownL, 21. Steady, HonestUniv. of Notre DameNCAANJD#164, 202320.00+10%14%<1%<1%AHLer
49Hawke HuffD, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of St. ThomasNCAASEA#148, 202620.50+5%17%<1%<1%Long shot
50Owen BecknerC, 21. Steady, HonestColorado CollegeNCAAOTT#204, 202340.25+5%14%1%<1%AHLer
51Shea BuschL, 19. Young for the league, EdgyPenn State Univ.NCAAFLA#128, 202530.00+10%13%<1%<1%Long shot?
52Emile GuiteL, 19. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of New HampshireNCAAANA#159, 202540.75+10%13%1%<1%Long shot
53Michael FisherD, 22. Playmaker, SteadyCornell Univ.NCAASJS#76, 2022330.24+4%20%<1%<1%Long shot?
54David RozsivalR, 19. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of St. ThomasNCAANJD#161, 202521.00+5%14%<1%<1%AHLer
55Alexandre BlaisC, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of ConnecticutNCAAANA#100, 202440.75−5%15%<1%<1%Long shot
56Quinn BeauchesneD, 19. Edgy, SteadyBoston CollegeNCAAPIT#148, 202520.50−7%15%<1%<1%Long shot
57Matthew MayichD, 21. Steady, HonestClarkson Univ.NCAASTL#170, 2023340.44+15%14%1%<1%Long shot
58Zach NehringR, 21. Steady, HonestWestern Michigan Univ.NCAAWPG#82, 202340.75−3%12%1%<1%Long shot
59Ben MacDonaldC, 22. Steady, HonestHarvard Univ.NCAASEA#91, 2022230.43+4%16%1%<1%Long shot?
60Ty HenricksL, 21. Heavy, SteadyWestern Michigan Univ.NCAANYR#183, 202340.75−3%11%<1%<1%Long shot
61Blake MontgomeryL, 21. Big frame, SteadyUniv. of WisconsinNCAAOTT#117, 2024380.45−2%13%<1%<1%Long shot
62Mason MoeC, 19. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of MinnesotaNCAANJD#90, 202530.33−1%12%<1%<1%Long shot
63Zaccharya WisdomR, 22. Steady, HonestWestern Michigan Univ.NCAASEA#212, 202341.00−3%8%<1%<1%AHLer
64Beckett HendricksonC, 21. Steady, HonestUniv. of MinnesotaNCAABOS#124, 202340.50−1%11%<1%<1%Long shot
65Reese LaubachC, 22. Steady, HonestPenn State Univ.NCAASJS#217, 202230.00+10%8%<1%<1%AHLer
66Tyler DukeD, 22. Playmaker, UndersizedUniv. of MichiganNCAAPIT400.45−8%14%1%<1%Long shot
67Brandon SvobodaC, 21. Heavy, SteadyBoston Univ.NCAAOTT#71, 202340.25−10%10%<1%<1%Long shot
68Jaden LipinskiC, 21. Big frame, SteadyUniv. of MaineNCAACGY#112, 202330.00+10%12%<1%<1%Long shot
69Hayden PaupanekisC, 19. Big frame, SteadySt. Cloud State Univ.NCAAMTL#69, 202540.25+10%8%1%<1%Long shot
70Charlie MorrisonD, 18. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of ConnecticutNCAANYR#77, 202640.50−5%10%<1%<1%Long shot
71Anthony Allain SamakeD, 19. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of ConnecticutNCAAANA#168, 202540.00−5%7%<1%<1%Long shot
72Raoul BoilardC, 20. Steady, HonestLake Superior State Univ.NCAANYR#119, 202440.75+15%9%1%<1%Long shot
73Tomas MrsicC, 20. Steady, HonestColorado CollegeNCAASTL#113, 202440.25+5%10%<1%<1%Long shot
74Charlie LeddyD, 22. Steady, HonestQuinnipiac Univ.NCAANJD#126, 2022290.24+9%13%<1%<1%Long shot?
75Landon NyczD, 18. Young for the league, SteadyUniv. of MassachusettsNCAASTL#107, 202660.17−1%8%<1%<1%Long shot
76Klavs VeinbergsL, 23. Heavy, SteadyColorado CollegeNCAATBL#224, 202240.75+5%7%<1%<1%Long shot
77Warren ClarkD, 22. Steady, HonestNorthern Michigan Univ.NCAATBL#179, 2023330.18+15%12%<1%<1%Long shot?
78Filip NordbergD, 22. Edgy, HeavyArizona State Univ.NCAAOTT#64, 202260.33−1%6%<1%<1%Long shot
79Theo WallbergD, 22. Heavy, SteadyWestern Michigan Univ.NCAAOTT#168, 202240.75−3%12%<1%<1%Long shot
80William McisaacD, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of ConnecticutNCAASTL#145, 202440.25−5%8%<1%<1%Long shot
81Cole SpicerC, 22. Steady, HonestWestern Michigan Univ.NCAABOS#117, 202240.50−3%7%<1%<1%Long shot?
82Ben MerrillC, 20. Edgy, SteadyBoston Univ.NCAAMTL#166, 202440.00−10%7%<1%<1%Long shot
83Ethan HayC, 21. Steady, HonestMiami Univ. (Ohio)NCAATBL#211, 202340.25+15%9%<1%<1%Long shot
84Carter KlippensteinC, 19. Edgy, SteadyProvidence CollegeNCAAMIN#123, 202510.00−3%7%<1%<1%Long shot
85Sean BarnhillD, 19. Edgy, HeavyMichigan State Univ.NCAANYR#70, 202530.33−9%6%<1%<1%Long shot
86Andrew StrathmannD, 21. Steady, HonestQuinnipiac Univ.NCAACBJ#98, 202350.80+10%7%<1%<1%Long shot
87Michael CallowR, 22. Big frame, SteadyHarvard Univ.NCAAANA#154, 2022160.44+4%4%<1%<1%Long shot?
88Cameron O'NeillR, 22. Steady, HonestUMassNCAAOTT#143, 2022310.45−4%7%<1%<1%Long shot?
89Darels UljanskisD, 20. Steady, HonestSt. Cloud State Univ.NCAAANA#214, 202450.40+10%7%<1%<1%Long shot
90Jack HarveyL, 23. Undersized, SteadyBoston Univ.NCAATBL#193, 202340.50−10%6%<1%<1%Long shot
91Bruno IdzanL, 20. Steady, HonestUniv. of WisconsinNCAAOTT#181, 202530.67+1%6%<1%<1%Long shot?
92Ryan MacPhersonC, 21. Steady, HonestRobert Morris Univ.NCAAPHI#172, 202340.00+15%5%<1%<1%Long shot
93James ClarkL, 21. Steady, HonestMichigan State Univ.NCAAMIN#213, 202330.67−9%6%<1%<1%Long shot
94Luke CoughlinD, 21. Steady, HonestFerris State Univ.NCAAFLA#191, 202310.00+15%6%<1%<1%Long shot?
95Maxon VigD, 20. Heavy, SteadyBemidji State Univ.NCAAMTL#209, 202530.67+15%6%<1%<1%Long shot
96Nicholas VantassellR, 22. Heavy, SteadyUniv. of New HampshireNCAAOTT#215, 202340.25+10%5%<1%<1%Long shot?
97Erik PåhlssonC, 22. Steady, HonestOhio State Univ.NCAANSH#213, 202440.00+5%4%<1%<1%Long shot
98Cade LittlerC, 22. Steady, HonestArizona State Univ.NCAACGY#219, 202260.50−3%4%<1%<1%Long shot
99Michael EmersonR, 22. Steady, HonestMerrimack CollegeNCAACAR#190, 202320.00+15%3%<1%<1%Long shot
100Connor LevisR, 21. Steady, HonestBowling Green State Univ.NCAAWPG#210, 202351.40+15%4%<1%<1%Long shot

The tier is the highest one he has at least an even chance of reaching, which is why Elite is rare even near the top of the board. NHL odds is the chance he becomes a regular (150+ NHL games) and top odds the chance of a first-line or top-pair career, both from what happened to 2010 to 2017 draft picks with numbers like his. Defencemen are judged on defence scales. This is a points model, so it can't see play without the puck. Updated October 19.