BUF at TBL, 2026-02-03

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Buffalo Sabres

Tampa Bay Lightning

Final (OT)

Expected goals, BUF–TBL: 2.7–3.5; all situations, empty nets out
TBL share of xG: 56.8%; 50% is even
Shots on goal: 26–35; BUF–TBL
Pre-game model: –; no projection stored

The story

The Lightning beat the Sabres 4-3 in overtime, and the chances agreed: 3.5 expected goals to 2.7. Darren Raddysh has scored in 5 straight games. Nikita Kucherov had four points, one goal and three assists.

Darren RaddyshStreak
Darren Raddysh has scored in 5 straight games. That makes 5 straight games with a point. That was his 17th goal of the season. The Lightning beat the Sabres 4-3 in overtime.
Nikita KucherovBig night
Nikita Kucherov had four points, one goal and three assists. That makes 9 straight games with a point. He has now scored in 3 straight. It finished 4-3 for the Lightning in overtime.
Jake GuentzelOvertime winner
Jake Guentzel scored the overtime winner. He played 26:07, about 6 minutes over his average. He has 25 goals this season. It finished 4-3 for the Lightning in overtime.
Mattias SamuelssonTwo goals
Mattias Samuelsson had two goals. He has 11 goals this season. He played 24:01 and had three shots on goal. The Sabres fell 4-3 to the Lightning in overtime.
Rasmus DahlinStreak
Rasmus Dahlin has a point in 6 straight games. He put 7 shots on goal, against an average of 2.6. The Sabres fell 4-3 to the Lightning in overtime.
Brandon HagelIce time
Brandon Hagel played 25:40, about 6 minutes more than his average this season. He has 53 points in 49 games this season. It finished 4-3 for the Lightning in overtime.

Shot attempts

Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.

BUFTBL

0204060

BUF 38TBL 49

1st2nd3rdOT

Where the shots came from

7 goals from 87 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.

GoalShot or miss

← BUF shootingTBL shooting →

Buffalo Sabres

Skater	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	Hits	Blk	xGF%
Rasmus Dahlin D	27:47	0	1	7	0.48	0	1	43
Mattias Samuelsson D	24:01	2	0	3	0.08	2	0	32
Bowen Byram D	23:37	0	0	0	0.05	0	1	29
Alex Tuch R	22:38	0	0	1	0.12	0	1	42
Tage Thompson C	22:09	0	1	5	0.63	1	0	31
Owen Power D	21:51	0	0	1	0.09	0	2	38
Ryan McLeod C	19:31	0	1	2	0.33	0	1	31
Jack Quinn R	17:50	0	1	2	0.08	1	0	20
Peyton Krebs C	17:47	0	0	1	0.42	3	0	49
Jason Zucker L	17:10	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	16
Josh Doan R	16:29	1	0	1	0.34	0	0	7
Noah Ostlund C	14:36	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	20
Konsta Helenius C	13:47	0	0	1	0.03	3	1	18
Tyson Kozak C	12:25	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	64
Zach Metsa D	11:12	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	10
Jacob Bryson D	11:01	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	10
Beck Malenstyn L	9:08	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	84
Isak Rosen R	8:17	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	76

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater	TOI	G	A	SOG	ixG	Hits	Blk	xGF%
Jake Guentzel C	26:07	1	1	1	0.34	1	0	70
Darren Raddysh D	25:48	1	1	3	0.43	2	2	72
Brandon Hagel L	25:40	0	1	4	0.21	1	0	70
J.J. Moser D	23:51	0	1	2	0.06	0	3	69
Nikita Kucherov R	22:24	1	3	7	0.68	0	1	71
Yanni Gourde C	20:01	0	0	2	0.24	1	0	58
Ryan McDonagh D	19:40	0	0	2	0.02	0	0	86
Erik Cernak D	18:04	0	0	2	0.03	0	3	87
Victor Hedman D	17:39	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	51
Zemgus Girgensons C	17:07	0	0	2	0.22	4	0	58
Pontus Holmberg R	16:31	0	0	0	0.07	3	0	58
Declan Carlile D	15:08	0	0	1	0.03	3	0	40
Oliver Bjorkstrand R	15:04	1	0	2	0.37	1	1	70
Gage Goncalves C	13:52	0	0	1	0.07	1	0	82
Dominic James C	13:02	0	0	2	0.21	2	0	67
Jack Finley C	7:43	0	0	1	0.17	1	0	87
Scott Sabourin R	6:03	0	0	1	0.14	4	1	85
Curtis Douglas C	5:45	0	0	1	0.19	2	0	87

Pro: expected goals, minute by minute

The minute-by-minute expected goals flow is part of Pro

The game measured in chance quality, minute by minute, which shows when it tilted and toward whom.

See Pro plans Sign in