Wednesday, February 25, 2026
- Expected goals, TOR–TBL
- 3.5–5.2
- all situations, empty nets out
- TBL share of xG
- 60.0%
- 50% is even
- Shots on goal
- 34–36
- TOR–TBL
- Pre-game model
- –
- no projection stored
The story
The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs 4-2, and the chances agreed: 5.1 expected goals to 3.6. Nikita Kucherov has a point in 11 straight games. Three points for Brayden Point: two goals and one assist.
- Nikita KucherovStreak
Nikita Kucherov has a point in 11 straight games. He finished with one goal and two assists. His goal stood up as the winner. It finished 4-2 for the Lightning.
- Brayden PointBig night
Three points for Brayden Point: two goals and one assist. He also had 11 shot attempts against an average of 3.9. It finished 4-2 for the Lightning.
- Gage GoncalvesBig night
Three points for Gage Goncalves: one goal and two assists. That was his seventh goal of the season. The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs 4-2.
- Jake GuentzelSnakebit
Jake Guentzel generated 1.4 expected goals on five shots and did not score. He has 60 points in 56 games this season. It finished 4-2 for the Lightning.
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonVolume
Oliver Ekman-Larsson had 10 shot attempts. Three reached the net and none went in. He came in averaging 3.5 attempts a game. The Maple Leafs lost 4-2 to the Lightning.
Shot attempts
Running count of unblocked attempts (shots on goal plus misses). Dots are goals. Hover to read any moment.
Where the shots came from
6 goals from 107 unblocked attempts. Shots from a team's own half are left off.
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 22:54 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 3 | 33 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:40 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 3 | 38 |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:00 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | 30 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:09 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 2 | 0 | 42 |
| William Nylander R | 19:02 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Max Domi C | 18:31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Matthew Knies L | 17:48 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 0 | 47 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 17:43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 3 | 38 |
| John Tavares C | 17:29 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 1 | 52 |
| Troy Stecher D | 16:28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Simon Benoit D | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| Bobby McMann C | 14:24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.45 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:15 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| Nick Robertson L | 12:52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 5 | 1 | 46 |
| Scott Laughton C | 12:02 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 8:11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Skater | TOI | G | A | SOG | ixG | Hits | Blk | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:57 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 2 | 73 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:55 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 0 | 57 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:25 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.40 | 0 | 1 | 55 |
| Brayden Point C | 22:16 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1.41 | 0 | 0 | 76 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 1 | 61 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:53 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | 4 | 0 | 45 |
| J.J. Moser D | 18:53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 2 | 65 |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 1 | 59 |
| Erik Cernak D | 17:04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 16:19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 15:43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 77 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 15:09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 87 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 12:29 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 1 | 70 |
| Victor Hedman D | 11:51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:51 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 78 |
| Dominic James C | 10:59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 1 | 0 | 44 |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 9:33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 98 |
| Scott Sabourin R | 5:54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.09 | 2 | 1 | 52 |
Pro: expected goals, minute by minute