GRIT & GF

Prospect board

The prospects we track, each with his likeliest NHL outcome and the odds of each tier. The odds come from what became of past draft picks with similar numbers, adjusted for league, age, draft slot and the team around him.

#PlayerTeamRightsGPP/GPContextNHL oddsTop oddsElite oddsProjection
1Nick LardisL, 21. Carrying a team, Volume shooterRockford IceHogsAHLCHI#67, 202330.67+36%64%37%12%Fourth-liner
2Felix NilssonC, 21. Carrying a team, Young for the leagueMilwaukee AdmiralsAHLNSH#43, 202340.25+10%77%27%17%Fourth-liner
3Justin CarbonneauR, 19. Carrying a team, Young for the leagueSpringfield ThunderbirdsAHLSTL#19, 202560.67+32%83%32%13%Fourth-liner
4Felix Unger SörumR, 21. Carrying a team, Young for the leagueChicago WolvesAHLCAR#62, 202340.25+44%63%36%7%Fourth-liner
5Terik ParascakR, 20. Young for the league, SteadyHershey BearsAHLWSH#17, 202420.00−3%77%22%11%Fourth-liner
6Andrew CristallL, 21. Playmaker, SteadyHershey BearsAHLWSH#40, 202361.33+2%73%21%5%Fourth-liner
7Andrew BashaLW, 15. Young for the league, SteadyCalgary WranglersAHL–70.29−14%66%26%12%Fourth-liner
8Luca Del Bel BelluzC, 22. Steady, HonestCleveland MonstersAHLCBJ#44, 2022551.05+5%81%13%5%Fourth-liner
9Brayden YagerC, 21. Sniper, SteadyManitoba MooseAHLWPG#14, 202361.50−19%68%13%6%Fourth-liner
10Jagger FirkusR, 22. Playmaker, SteadyCoachella Valley FirebirdsAHLSEA#35, 202271.14−14%65%22%5%Fourth-liner
11Joakim KemellR, 22. Carrying a team, SteadyMilwaukee AdmiralsAHLNSH#17, 202241.00+16%67%14%6%Fourth-liner
12Lenni HameenahoR, 21. Carrying a team, SteadyUtica CometsAHLNJD#58, 202341.25+25%75%13%5%Fourth-liner
13Emil HemmingR, 20. Carrying a team, Young for the leagueTexas StarsAHLDAL#29, 202460.17+17%60%22%4%Fourth-liner
14Jani NymanR, 22. Edgy, SniperCoachella Valley FirebirdsAHLSEA#49, 202271.43074%13%6%Fourth-liner
15Bill ZonnonR, 19. Young for the league, Stacked rosterWilkes-Barre/Scranton PenguinsAHLPIT#22, 202560.83−19%57%19%9%Fourth-liner
16Hunter HaightC, 22. Carrying a team, SteadyIowa WildAHLMIN#47, 202260.83+40%57%14%6%Fourth-liner
17Eduard SaleL, 21. Steady, HonestCoachella Valley FirebirdsAHLSEA#20, 202370.57−14%66%11%4%Fourth-liner
18Rory KerinsC, 21. Steady, HonestCalgary WranglersAHL–70.57−11%67%17%2%Fourth-liner
19Liam GreentreeR, 20. Carrying a team, Young for the leagueHartford Wolf PackAHLNYR#26, 202480.63+38%51%16%4%Fourth-liner
20Colby BarlowL, 21. Steady, HonestManitoba MooseAHLWPG#18, 202360.83−24%62%10%3%Fourth-liner
21Tanner HoweL, 20. Young for the league, Stacked rosterWilkes-Barre/Scranton PenguinsAHLPIT#46, 202460.33−23%57%15%4%Fourth-liner
22Oscar Fisker MolgaardC, 21. Steady, HonestCoachella Valley FirebirdsAHLSEA#52, 202360.50054%11%4%Fourth-liner
23Reid SchaeferL, 22. Heavy, SniperMilwaukee AdmiralsAHLNSH#32, 2022330.85+1%50%8%8%Fourth-liner?
24Lucas PetterssonC, 20. Young for the league, SteadySan Diego GullsAHLANA#35, 202460.50+9%51%12%11%Fourth-liner
25Nathan GaucherC, 22. Edgy, HeavySan Diego GullsAHLANA#22, 202250.60+12%52%10%3%Fourth-liner
26Kasper HalttunenR, 21. Carrying a team, Volume shooterBelleville SenatorsAHLOTT#36, 202371.14+19%58%8%2%Fourth-liner
27William StromgrenL, 23. Playmaker, SteadyCalgary WranglersAHLCGY#45, 202171.14−12%55%6%3%Fourth-liner
28Owen BeckC, 22. Stacked roster, SteadyLaval RocketAHLMTL#33, 202240.25−27%52%4%2%Fourth-liner
29Amadeus LombardiC, 23. Steady, HonestGrand Rapids GriffinsAHLNJD#113, 2022470.89−10%51%2%<1%Fourth-liner

The tier is the highest one he has at least an even chance of reaching, which is why Elite is rare even near the top of the board. NHL odds is the chance he becomes a regular (150+ NHL games) and top odds the chance of a first-line or top-pair career, both from what happened to 2010 to 2017 draft picks with numbers like his. Defencemen are judged on defence scales. This is a points model, so it can't see play without the puck. Updated October 19.